The Buffalo Bills are set to “host” the Jacksonville Jaguars in London on Sunday. The Bills arrived on Friday and now play a team that has been on the continent for over a week, sitting as 5.5-point favorites with a total of 48.5 according to NFL odds.
With a high frequency of 12 personnel and a growing snap/target share, is this the week bettors see rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid showcase his talents as he faces a defense that has been generous to opposing TEs?
Here are my free NFL picks as we dissect the Week 5 odds for Jaguars vs. Bills on October 8.
Be sure to also check out our Josh Allen spotlight picks along with our Jaguars vs. Bills prop bets.
Jaguars vs Bills odds
Jaguars vs Bills predictions
Dalton Kincaid out-snapped Dawson Knox for the first time in Week 4 and could be in line for a solid day of production on Sunday morning in London.
Knox enters this week slightly limited with a quad injury that had him limited at practice on Wednesday and Thursday. A cross-country Friday flight likely didn’t do the muscle any wonders, and considering he is coming off a one-target showing in Week 4 where he only played 29 of 58 snaps, the arrow is pointing up for Kincaid.
The Buffalo Bills rookie tight end has at least four catches in three of his four games and 15 receptions on 17 targets. His catch rate is great because he is running shorter routes with a three-yard aDOT.
Kincaid is getting more familiar with an offense that features double tight ends, and half of his snaps are coming in the slot where he’ll have a big matchup advantage this weekend.
Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd was a DNP at practice on Thursday and is looking doubtful for Sunday. He is one of the team’s better coverage linebackers, and if the Jags use slot corner Tre Herndon to guard Kincaid, the TE will have six inches and 50 pounds on the defender.
The Jaguars have also been beaten up by opposing TEs on the year, boasting a 5.8/65.2/0.5 receiving line on the season. Jonnu Smith caught six of six passes last week vs. Jacksonville for 95 yards, Noah Gray went 3-for-3 for 38 yards in Week 2, and Kyle Granson hauled in four catches on six targets for 39 yards in Week 1. Even low-end TEs are putting up profitable numbers.
This market has moved since I released it on Thursday, but its current price of +155 is still showing value. It could easily be a six-target game for the Kincaid, and his milestone prop of five or more receptions (+320) is also in play.
My best bet: Dalton Kincaid to record 4+ receptions (+155 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Jaguars vs Bills same-game parlay
Dalton Kincaid 5+ receptionsEvan Engram Under 46.5 receiving yardsCalvin Ridley Under 4.5 receptions
+1,100 at bet365
For our SGP, I’m grabbing the 5+ receptions on Kincaid’s milestone market. The rookie’s 3-yard aDOT keeps him close to the line and in play to make probable catches. The Jags also average nearly six TE receptions per game.
I’m also stacking a couple of Jacksonville-receiving Unders, and it’s no surprise that both of these were releases from THE BLITZ. If Zay Jones suits up, that will muddy the target share for this offense.
Calvin Ridley had just two targets last week and his 52% catch rate isn’t helping. Evan Engram also has a tough matchup vs. a team that has been one of the best at shutting down opposing TEs for the last three years.
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Jaguars vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis
Buffalo was listed at -4.5 on the look-ahead line and as short as -3 in the summer. Thanks to some underwhelming performances from the Jags through four games and the Bills looking like the team to beat in the AFC, the move from -4.5 to -5.5 is warranted.
The Bills lost star corner Tre’Davious White to an Achilles tear last week while fellow CB Christian Benford has been limited at practice this week. The good news for the secondary is that safety Jordan Poyer was a full go in practice on Thursday.
Buffalo will also be without defensive end Greg Rousseau, but Von Miller could be back in the fold. The All-Pro pass rusher has hinted that he will return in Week 5 and it’s looking quite possible, which makes one of the best pressure defenses in the league even better. The Bills currently rank first in football with a 32% pressure rate and second in QB knock-down%.
This could be the deciding point of the game, which has me leaning on the Bills at -5.5. There are some issues in the secondary but can Trevor Lawrence and his O-line take advantage of it against a defense that can force elite pressure on the quarterback?
Jacksonville will be without starting linebacker Devin Lloyd and its depth at wide receiver is also concerning as Jones and Jamal Agnew are both limited. Both were inactive in Week 4 and if one or both of them suit up — especially Jones — it will cut into the target share of Ridley, Engram, and Christian Kirk.
This total was 47.5 on the look-ahead, re-opened at 48, and hit as high as 49 before settling down to 48.5 on Friday. I lean to the Under here as the Bills are the slowest pace-of-play team in a neutral context and could eat up significant time with long drives against a below-average Jags defense.
