One of the O’s will have to go when the winless Minnesota Vikings travel to Charlotte to take on the winless Carolina Panthers in what’s shaping up to be one of the uglier games of Week 4 in the NFL. Just because it’s ugly though doesn’t mean the game won’t offer some good betting opportunities. Carolina is a home dog of 3.5 points while the game has a total of 45.5, per the latest NFL odds.
Aside from their 0-3 records, these are two very contrasting teams. Minnesota’s offense is among the best in the NFL when it comes to moving the football, but they can’t get any help from the defense. In Carolina, meanwhile, the Bryce Young era is off to a rough start, but there are some bright spots on the Panthers defense that’ll be able to keep them in some games.
Here’s what stands out to me along with my free NFL picks for Vikings vs. Panthers on October 1st.
Vikings vs Panthers odds
Vikings vs Panthers predictions
Who could have predicted the Minnesota Vikings would lead the NFL in turnovers after three weeks of play? Well, anyone with half a brain…
Minnesota has already committed nine turnovers, including seven fumbles, and this is the primary reason it’s 0-3. The Vikings offense ranks an impressive second in yards per play, but they’re 15th in scoring due to all the empty drives.
They’re leaving points on the table, which you can’t afford to do when you have a bad defense. Through three games, they’re 26th in points allowed, 25th in yards per play allowed, and 29th in opponent red zone TD scoring percentage. To be fair, two of their three opponents — the Eagles and Chargers — have good offenses, but Brian Flores has failed to make a positive impact as the team’s defensive coordinator.
At the time of this writing on Wednesday afternoon, we still don’t know who will start at quarterback for the Carolina Panthers, but I don’t think it’ll matter much. Bryce Young failed to top 155 passing yards in each of his two starts, while Andy Dalton has proven on countless occasions that he can’t be trusted to consistently play at an above-average level — that’s why he’s on his fourth team in four years.
Regardless of who’s behind center, it’s been a struggle for Frank Reich’s offense with the team ranking near the bottom of the league in yards per play and points. Their first two games saw the Panthers score 10 and 17 points, respectively. While they did manage to get to 27 in Week 3 vs. the Seahawks, seven of those points came via a garbage-time TD inside two minutes.
Each team should be concerned about the state of their offensive lines as each is in the top 11 in pressure percentage allowed. This is an area the defenses could take advantage of as the Panthers already have 10 sacks on the season, while the Vikings have been ultra-aggressive by blitzing at the highest percentage in the league.
Additionally, the Panthers rank fifth in opponent third-down conversion percentage. That, combined with Minnesota’s turnover issues could lead to a lot of empty possessions for the Vikings.
All things considered, I think we have more evidence that points to a lower-scoring game than a shootout, so I’ll roll with the Under of 45.5 points.
My best bet: Under 45.5 (-110 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Vikings vs Panthers same-game parlay
Under 45.5Panthers TT Under 20.5
+133 at FanDuel
Let’s double-dip on the Under by specifically fading the Panthers as well. The last time the Vikings played a poor offense was in Week 1 vs. the Buccaneers. They allowed 20 points on just 3.6 yards per play and I could see a similar performance.
As mentioned above, the Vikings are a high-volume blitzing team, which is something the Panthers haven’t faced much of yet this season. I expect the Vikings to get home on a handful of these blitzing attempts, which will lead to long third-down conversion attempts that the Panthers won’t be able to convert.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Vikings vs Panthers spread and Over/Under analysis
Digging the Over/Under of 45.5, this is the highest total in a Panthers game in almost two years. And going back to last season, seven of their last 11 games have failed to cross 40 points, so we’re seeing a very low-scoring pattern in their games. Plus, the Vikings saw a drop off of 4.1 points per game on the road last season, so they might not be as explosive in a different environment.
The Vikings have seen decent results as a road favorite over the past few seasons as they’ve gone 13-3 SU and 10-5-1 ATS since October 21, 2018. This lines up well with the Panthers, who’ve been quite poor as a home underdog of more than three as they’re on a 1-6 ATS slide in this spot.
